European wind energy development is still falling short of what’s needed to achieve emission reductions targets, according to research presented by WindEurope and GlobalData.

Information from GlobalData shows that the EU is set for 360 GW of wind power by 2030 – some 20 percent below the 433-452 GW that WindEurope estimates is required for the bloc to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030, relative to 1990 levels.

WindEurope calculates that the EU needs to install some 25 GW of new onshore wind and 8 GW of new offshore wind, on average, per year, over the 2022-26 period, for the bloc to hit its 2030 target. GlobalData estimates that average annual capacity additions over the period will be 11 GW for onshore wind and 3 GW for offshore wind – both well below of what is required.

Similarly, Europe is not on track to meet its renewables target in terms of overall electricity production. The EU will achieve 45 percent renewable power generation by 2030, up from 30 percent today, but far off the 68 percent the European Commission (EC) believes is needed by then, the data shows.

GlobalData’s analysis of upcoming projects finds that wind generation in the EU is set to increase from 15 percent to 26 percent of total power generation between 2021-2030. This 73 percent growth rate in market share would be impressive but not enough for wind to meet the EU’s decarbonisation requirements. The EC wants wind energy to be 50 percent of all electricity consumed in Europe by 2050.

Nevertheless, as more recently announced projects come online towards the end of the decade, there is set to be an uptick in growth. Based on current plans, the average annual capacity addition for onshore and offshore wind from 2027-30 is due to be 14 GW for onshore and 11 GW for offshore. This rise in capacity additions could increase further as the European energy transition gathers pace; the war in Ukraine is adding impetus to EU climate plans.