US tariffs and escalating global trade tensions have unsurprisingly dominated global shipping in the first half of 2025. Veson Nautical’s half-year report reflects a mixed market, where the turbulent first six months curbed investment in some segments but accelerated strategic orders in others.
“Geopolitical pressure is no longer a background factor; it’s shaping the way owners think about risk, timing and capital,” said Matt Freeman, chief market analyst at Veson Nautical. “From regulation to rerouting, disruption is now part of the operating environment, and owners are recalibrating their strategies accordingly.”
The report said that US trade policy changes hit vehicle carrier markets particularly hard, contributing to a 44 percent drop in charter rates for standard 6,500 ceu vessels and a complete halt in newbuild orders during the first six months of the year.
Container shipping was also affected as frontloading and rerouted supply chains prompted operators to accelerate newbuild orders, despite persistent cost pressure. According to Veson Nautical, newbuilding surged, with orders up 288 percent year-on-year in H1 2025. Owners moved quickly to secure tonnage amid ongoing diversions around the Cape of Good Hope and congestion at European ports.
By comparison, the multipurpose heavy lift segment experienced relative stability. Analysis from Toepfer Transport shows only a limited fluctuation in the average daily time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel: down to USD12,905 at the start of July 2025 from USD13,246 in January.
“Despite the well-known geopolitical and economic challenges, it remains uncertain whether this stability indicates a strong and resilient market environment or if it’s merely a calm before a storm,” said the analyst.
