A white paper from maritime data and freight management platform, Veson Nautical, suggests that the global shipping industry is in “the mid-cycle transition” and the risk of overcapacity is mounting.
Titled The Anatomy of Shipping Cycles: What History Can Tell Us About Tomorrow’s Market, the white paper said that current market conditions resembles that seen in previous shipping cycles – where the market appears stable on the surface, but underlying pressures are quietly building.
It argues that as fleet deliveries increase, global trade slows, and regulatory constraints tighten, the risk of tipping into overcapacity is mounting. “Looking back at the history of previous shipping cycles, we’re likely in the mid-phase of the transition from the high point to the low,” said Matt Freeman, white paper co-author and vice president of valuation and analytics at Veson Nautical. “To navigate this fragile equilibrium successfully will require not only operational discipline, but a deep understanding of the structural patterns that have shaped previous cycles.”
Cyclical patterns have repeated across decades of maritime history, shaped by different macroeconomic forces, yet following a familiar arc: overconfidence, overcapacity, and correction.
While no two cycles unfold in exactly the same way, the paper identifies a set of recurring markers that often precede inflection points. One of the clearest is newbuild parity – a condition where five-year-old or zero-year-old vessels begin trading at or above the cost of newbuilds. This signal, which reflects urgency outweighing asset fundamentals, has historically appeared at market peaks, including before the 2008 crash, the 2014 oil price collapse, and the post-covid container rate spike.
“Today, the return of newbuild parity in several market segments is a warning sign,” said Felix Tordoff, co-author and junior valuation analyst at Veson. “It suggests a market where urgency is outweighing discipline, and an environment where short-term opportunity may cloud long-term judgment.”
The white paper notes that scheduled fleet deliveries are rising, particularly in the bulker segment, peaking in 2027–2028. At the same time, global trade growth is slowing, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) revising its 2025 forecast down to 2.2 percent, well below the post-2010 average.
While new environmental regulations such as EEXI and CII may reduce effective fleet capacity, the authors argue this will not be enough to counterbalance incoming tonnage.
The white paper concludes that shipping cycles are not anomalies to be feared, but recurring patterns that can be understood and strategically managed. While predicting their exact timing remains elusive, recognising their structure and signals offers operators a powerful decision advantage.
It should be noted that, by contrast, the multipurpose/heavy lift orderbook is still relatively low. Owners and operators in this segment have been cautious in their newbuilding plans – perhaps in recognition of these recurring patterns and in an effort to mitigate exposure to the cyclical nature of the market.
