The 18th edition of the One World Market Sentiment Index (MSI) for the multipurpose and breakbulk shipping industry slipped again to a reading of 53 – the lowest level in 15 months and down from the previous edition’s rating of 53.3.
Respondents to the latest MSI voiced concerns over the stability of the global economy thanks to US economic policy shifts. Tariffs, although not as high as initially threatened, are impacting business and investment decisions are being deferred, pushing back project lead times.
Looking to the second half of 2025, carriers report that the projects market, particularly oil and gas, is providing strong cargo flows. However, pressure is reportedly increasing in the general breakbulk market.
Moreover, container rates have been crashing following earlier US front-loading ahead of tariff introductions, while newbuild deliveries continue to add to an already over-supplied sector. The analyst said that container operators have been steadily increasing their exposure to breakbulk opportunities and with abundant spare capacity they will be competitive.
The analyst also drew attention to Chinese shipping group COSCO, which continues to introduce new large multipurpose vessels to market including a recent order of 15+15 80,000 dwt geared ships. Pricing pressure in some cargo segments and on some lanes is set to continue for the long term which may prompt some carriers into tactical service changes, it said.
Other notable inputs to this edition of the MSI include carriers’ expectations of an improving outlook with regard to the supply side of the MPP market, with both current and 12-month future fleet supply inputs predicting a shortening of tonnage in the year ahead. With the fleet currently more or less in balance, and newbuilds in the project carrier segment only at replacement levels, any improvement in cargo volumes or reductions in tonnage to demolitions will further strengthen the supply side outlook.
Meanwhile, Houthi rebels have resumed hostile actions in the Gulf of Aden following the bombing of Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Two Greek owned vessels were attacked and sunk in July forcing the few carriers that were gravitating back into the region to rethink and in most cases withdraw. A re-opening of the Red Sea / Suez to commercial ship traffic still looks far away supporting freight rates whilst it endures.
US carriers’ confidence has been falling throughout the year – and the decline shows no sign of stopping. In contrast, Asian carriers have recently become more optimistic in their forecasts. However, renewed threats from the USA to impose punitive tariffs on China are dampening activity. A deadline to reach a trade agreement has been extended, as both sides remain acutely aware of the broader economic risks of a prolonged trade war. A deal is likely to emerge that serves the political interests of both governments. Meanwhile, European carriers continue to show a steady improvement in their long-term outlook.
